With the recent closed door deal Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid made yesterday with the Democrat party caucus to drop the public government option, it is assumed that Independent Senator Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut is now firmly in the Democrat camp and will vote for cloture to end debate.
The other Independent Senator, the self-proclaimed socialist from Vermont, Bernie Sanders, had indicated that he would refuse to support any bill that did not include a public option. Although we do not know the details of the deal, it is fair to assume that Sen. Reid gained Sen. Sanders' nod to secure this bargain.
That leaves the current head count in the Senate currently at 57, just three votes short of the magic 60 to break the Republican filibuster. The Democrat Party hold-out senators are Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas, Mary Landrieu of Louisiana, and Ben Nelson of Nebraska. Two senators on the Republican side who could be swayed are Olympia Snowe, and Susan Collins, both from Maine.
Each of the five senators have different motives for wavering. Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas faces a tough challenge in her bid for reelection in 2010. Mary Landrieu has a reputation as one of the most conservative Democrats in the Senate. Ben Nelson refuses to support any bill that allows abortion funding, and Joe Lieberman refuses to support any "public" government-run option in any form.
The two Republicans from Maine who might cross the isle, are more difficult to pin down. Senator Max Baucus of Montana, and Chairman of the Senate Finance Committee worked hard over the summer and early Fall months to win her vote to move the draft (called Mark) out of Committee. But Snowe has declared that her committee vote is not necessarily a vote for final passage or on cloture. It would be quite unlikely that either Snowe or Collins would cross the isle against the GOP as the deciding 60th vote for cloture, which will cut off debate and move the bill to the floor for a simple majority.
Therefore, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid from Nevada, must corral all three Democrat Senators, to come to agreement on the bill, all the while keeping the senators on the far left in line when moderate amendments come up such as abortion defunding.
Senators Barbara Boxer and Dianne Feinstein, both from California, along with Senator Barbara Mikulski from Maryland are staunch defenders of abortion rights. While Sen. Nelson has threatened to join the Republicans in a filibuster if abortion funding is not removed from the bill, the three women senators have threatened to withhold their vote if their abortion interests are not addressed.
If Sen. Reid can persuade two of the three to come over to the Democrat camp, then ObamaCare is almost assured of passage. In order to secure a vote, Reid will likely pledge millions of Democrat Party soft money into the campaign war chest for any remaining senator standing alone.
Senator Reid's goal is to have the health care reform bill out of the Senate and sent to conference committee before the Christmas holiday. He has indicated that the Senators may work right up to Christmas Eve.
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