On Sunday morning's news programs, Democrats from the House as well as Obama's administration have been boasting that they will have the votes to pass health care reform by week's end. Rhodes News has completed an analysis and their whip count strategy.
The House landscape has changed a bit since November's House vote. The Democrats hold four less seats than they did in November. Rep. Eric Massa (D-NY) resigned, and Rep Jack Murtha (D-PA) passed away. Neil Ambercromie (D-HI) resigned to run for governor, and Robert Wexler (D-FL) resigned to move to the private sector. Of these four, only one, Massa, voted against the bill, so that's a net loss of three votes.
The lone Republican to vote for the ObamaCare bill in November, Joseph Cao (R-LA) has announced his intention to vote against the Senate version this time around. If all other votes hold constant then Pelosi's whip count is 216, the exact number she needs for majority.
Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) voted against the bill in November, only because the legislation was not liberal enough for his taste, lacking a "government option." Kucinich announced his "yes" vote Wednesday. That brings the count up to 217.
Further, three representatives, all Democrats, have announced their retirement for the upcoming election. They are: Brian Baird (D-WA), Bart Gordon (D-TN), John Tanner (D-TN). Baird voted to "yes" in November and is not expected to change his vote. Gordon and Tanner voted against it, but now that they have announced their retirement, we must assume they will change their vote to support ObamaCare, since they will not have to face their constituents in an election in November. It will be easier for them to simply go along with leadership arm-twisting than it will be for them to buck the brutal threats of the Beltway leadership. That brings the whip count up to 219 for the Democrats.
